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                <li class="active"> 南非再次发现新变异毒株，突变率2倍于德尔塔？ </li>
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                                <h1 class="text-center mtop35"><a th:href="@{/blog_detail2}"><strong>南非再次发现新变异毒株，突变率2倍于德尔塔？</strong> </a></h1>
                                <p class="text-center auth-row">
                                    [[#{common.82}]] <a href="#">李林</a>     |   [[#{common.100_12.20}]]   | <a href="#">30 [[#{common.84}]]</a>
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;7月19日我们这边其实提交过关于新毒株申请（因为留意到7月13日深圳CDC上传了这个毒株的测序记录）：</p>
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;结果交上去才发现，英格兰卫生署的老师们已经提前10天申请了（因为这货6月29日就现身英国了）：</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;然而身为第一事故现场的南非，当时本土都好几十例了，还跟无事发生一样</p>
                                <br>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;下面正式开始批判到处转载各种不实信息的《观网》啊。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;——首先呢，“突变率几乎是Delta等变异株的两倍”这个说法，明显是毫无技术含量的恶意贩卖焦虑：</p>
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;人家NICD的原文[1]明明说的是——C.1.2【从C.1开始计算的】突变速率是【全局突变速率】的【约1.7倍】：</p>
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;这跟Delta有球关系？</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;而且吧，几大VOC的突变速率都不是省油的灯：</p>
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                                    <img src="images/blog/blog-wide-img31.jpg" alt="">
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<strong>1.4怎么就是1.05的两倍了？</strong></p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;来人，快给观网发个菲尔兹奖啊~</p>
                                <br>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;然后，WHO这种常年乱说话不负责的机构，观网也敢不核实数据就直接转？</p>
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;WHO说：全球范围内报告了大约100例。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;实际情况：全球范围内（截止9月1日）报告了144例。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;WHO说：目前没有上升趋势。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;————实际情况，请品鉴：</p>
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                                    <img src="images/blog/blog-wide-img33.jpg" alt="">
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;这也敢说目前没有上升趋势？？？</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;然——更加让人焦虑的是啥，请继续品鉴：</p>
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                                    <img src="images/blog/blog-wide-img34.jpg" alt="">
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;6月份统共只有4例，7月份30例，8月份飙升到81例，然后<strong>9月1日一天时间就冒出来18例~</strong></p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;然观网和WHO不觉得瑟瑟发抖吗？</p>
                                <br>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;既然说到流行率增长趋势，继续平添一些焦虑吧。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;根据比利时鲁汶大学Tom Wenseleers老师的多项式曲线拟合模型[3]，C.1.2在南非的增长速度如下：</p>
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                                    <img src="images/blog/blog-wide-img35.jpg" alt="">
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;如上图，在Delta已然是主流毒株的情况下，C.1.2在南非仍然刷出了流行率相对增长率仅比Delta低每天2%的成绩</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;考虑到置信区间的话，谁快谁慢都还两说……</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;（横向比较一下啊，以增速迅猛出名的B.1.621=μ，在主场哥伦比亚，流行率相对增长率比Delta低每天11%）</p>
                                <br>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;比WHO说话更不着调的，大概就是推特焦虑贩卖专家丁老师了，观网咋就不转点靠谱的呢：</p>
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;丁老师他就是个营养学家，他哪儿知道啥毒株突变位点最多啊，</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;还不是张口就来，强行贩卖焦虑……</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;截止8月30日，突变位点最多的毒株显然并不是C.1.2，</p>
                                <h4>而是同样产自南非的B.1.638。</h4>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;——请对比品鉴</p>
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                                    <img src="images/blog/blog-wide-img37.jpg" alt="">
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                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;B.1.638总共有大约45个氨基酸突变，其中26-28个是刺突蛋白突变，包括5个RBD区域突变和2个FCS区域突变：P384L+Y453F+N460K+A475V+E484K+H655Y+P681H；</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;而C.1.2总共有大约35-38个氨基酸突变，其中17-18个是刺突蛋白突变，包括3-4个RBD区域突变和2个FCS区域突变：Y449H+E484K+N501Y+H655Y+N679K/P681H。</p>
                                <br>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;而且吧，35-40个氨基酸突变的毒株，市面上已经不少了。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;——比如，Delta家族最新成员AY.31了解一下：</p>
                                <div class="blog-img-wide">
                                    <img src="images/blog/blog-wide-img38.jpg" alt="">
                                </div>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;——再比如，Alpha家族的奇行种Q.7了解一下</p>
                                <div class="blog-img-wide">
                                    <img src="images/blog/blog-wide-img39.jpg" alt="">
                                </div>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;所以情况就是这么个情况。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;虽然C.1.2看起来挺凶猛残暴，但长江后浪推前浪，现如今的同辈选手也个个都不是啥善茬，谁卷得过谁真不好说。</p>
                                <p>&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;咱还是一边焦虑一边围观取乐吧。</p>
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                                            <a href="#">[[#{common.82}]]/李亮</a>
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                                           <div><a href="https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v1.full">https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v1.full</a></div>
                                           <div> <a href="https://virological.org/t/the-molecular-clock-of-variants-of-concern/736">https://virological.org/t/the-molecular-clock-of-variants-of-concern/736</a></div>
                                           <div><a href="https://github.com/tomwenseleers/newcovid_belgium/commit/49d5fd93bd034112346612d0bb49a02d1567671a">https://github.com/tomwenseleers/newcovid_belgium/commit/49d5fd93bd034112346612d0bb49a02d1567671a</a></div>
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                                            <a href="#">jps</a>
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                                            <span class="pull-left">10 [[#{common.119}]]</span>
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                                            张口就来，强行贩卖焦虑……
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                                            <a href="">用户rztqqz731</a>
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                                            <span class="pull-left">20 [[#{common.119}]]</span>
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                                            WHO就喜欢这样
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                                            过于夸大了。
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                                            <span class="pull-left">30 [[#{common.119}]]</span>
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                                            加强防护措施吧，新冠真的越来越厉害了。
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